Drought in South Central Somalia has created a significantly worsened humanitarian situation during the past six months. Furthermore, renewed fighting and growing instability is adding to the urgency of securing relief aid to the victims of the humanitarian crisis.

Fighting between TFG forces (Transitional Federal Government) and al-Shabaab is expected to escalate and continue over the coming months. More than half of the assistance currently provided to Somalia is targeting areas that are under the control of the al Shabaab. Reaching out to isolated parts of the region is only possible in close collaboration with local humanitarian organisations.

"A halt to the presence of international humanitarian organisations will clearly be perceived as a failure among the local population, and many see the presence of aid agencies as an important sign that the international community will not let the people of Somalia down," says Ann Mary Olsen, head of the International Department of the Danish Refugee Council.

Most of the relief aid provided has been in the form of food, safe drinking water, and improved sanitation, aid that in many cases is crucial and can save lives. The assistance is of such size and magnitude, that a stop is likely to result in a significant deterioration of both the nutritional and the health situation among the most vulnerable.

"It is our assessment that the humanitarian assistance to South Central Somalia represents a life-saving response for a large group of people, who otherwise would not be able to find alternatives in the event that this assistance is stopped," Ann Mary Olsen says.

Large groups of displaced persons currently live in temporary settlements in and around the Somali capital Mogadishu. In total, it is estimated that more than 400,000 people have sought refuge in the Afgooye Corridor.

In the short term, it is estimated that 100-150,000 children, women, and elderly, and thus the weakest groups in the Somali society, will be directly affected. This number will eventually increase without access to aid and support. The extent to which the situation will deteriorate depends not least on the duration of the drought, which is currently estimated to continue for at least the next three to six months.

A halt to the humanitarian aid is expected to further lead to an increased migration from South Central Somalia. In January, neighbouring Kenya received around 8,000 new refugees, which is the highest number in one month in more than two years. The same trend applies to the camps in Ethiopia.

Currently, there are around 320,000 registered refugees in the Dadaab camp in Kenya. In Ethiopia, around 40,000 refugees are sheltered in the Dolo Ado camp. The Kenyan government has recently suspended further expansion of the Dadaab camp in fear of attracting more refugees and thereby increasing the security risk.

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